As of July 6, all Express Entry program draws are once again conducted by IRCC. Since then, each draw has granted 250 more Invitations to Apply (ITAs), resulting in a reduction in the minimum Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score criteria.
However, the thresholds for passing are still extremely high. For the most recent Express Entry allocation, applicants needed a minimum score of 533. Individuals would be required to be young, extremely well educated, have professional experience, be multilingual, and have all of these qualifications to receive an ITA with such a high score.
The Canadian Experience Class (CEC) and Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) draws have both been kept on hold by IRCC since September 2021 and December 2020, respectively. Due to the lack of draws encouraging them to apply, the number of applicants encouraged to seek more than 501 in the pool increased throughout this period. Inside the pool, Express Entry credentials are acceptable for up to a year.
As a result, there are currently many more qualified candidates than before the pandemic. On March 3, 2020, the final draw before COVID-19 was pronounced a pandemic, there were roughly 21,900 Express Entry candidates in the pool with scores ranging from 450 to 600. There were 66,813 Express Entry applicants in this range for the August 3, 2022 draw.
In accordance with the most recent data on the online platform, there are around 8,975 Express Entry applicants with scores between 501 and 600. When contrasted to the Express Entry draw on July 20, this number shows fewer applicants in this category, although it is still higher than what was seen on July 6. This shows that while more highly qualified applicants are joining the pool, they are not doing so quickly enough to stop the CRS cutoff from decreasing.
The proportion of candidates from the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) in the pool is another factor that could affect how much the CRS score drops. The provinces whose governments make nominations are responsible for determining this number. Then, it depends on how quickly an Express Entry candidate can reply to a request to submit an application for a nomination (if they want to do so) but how much time it takes the province to complete the recommendation. The addition of 250 ITAs per draw over the last three draws seems to have been sufficient to counteract the influx of new PNP and Express Entry applicants. The CRS score has thus kept declining.
If draws proceed in this manner
Draw lengths will catch up to the 5,000 we saw in December 2020 after 30 weeks if IRCC keeps adding 250 ITAs every two weeks. On March 8, 2023, that will occur. Between January 8 and March 4, 2020, there were 3,700 ITAs on average drawn per draw. Assuming draws grow at the same rate, IRCC won’t reach this number till December 28, 2022, which is 20 weeks away.
Naturally, the IRCC is under no obligation to organize draws every two weeks, and the department is free to change the invites as necessary. As we’ve seen during the pandemic, the department’s capacity to uphold its norm of evaluating 80% of submissions in six months and even the number of co-immigration levels plan will determine how many invites are granted.
What is the Immigration Levels Plan for the Years 2022-2024?
In 2022, the IRCC anticipates receiving roughly 55,900 Express Entry applicants. Internal briefing documents inform us that this number will consist of immigrants awaiting processing.
But it’s anticipated that among the 75,750 people targeted for 2023 will be new Express Entry applications. Application for permanent residence must be made within 60 days of receiving an invitation by an ITA holder, and the IRCC may need up to six months to complete the application. After that, in 2024, the Express Entry objective will increase to 111,500, which is on par with the yearly Express Entry goals for 2021.
What conclusions can we draw from this?
Keep in mind the following criteria if you want your CRS scores to decrease so you can acquire an ITA:
IRCC doesn’t reveal its draw plans in advance. It has the discretion to conduct draws whenever desired and to choose the draw parameters. Furthermore, the Express Entry objectives contained in the immigration levels plan, which again is scheduled to be amended by November 1, can affect draw sizes. As more invites are sent out, CRS ratings often decline. The number of PNP applicants or high-scoring Express Entry applicants in the pool, however, can also have an impact on the cutoff scores. Due to the 18-month break in all-program draws, there are currently more applicants with scores above 501 in the pool than usual.
The agency had sufficiently processed the backlog of applications to satisfy its processing requirement, which is why the IRCC restarted draws in July. Applicants who do receive invitations to apply can anticipate a six-month processing time for their submissions.
Looking ahead
Early in 2023, IRCC anticipates conducting draws with a particular economic purpose in mind, such as a job, linguistic proficiency, or some other aspect. As a result, CRS ratings and program categories might no longer be the main determining elements in ITA awarding.
According to Fraser, “over the course of the next several months, they should be capable of providing more clarification regarding what these routes may look like. they actually looking forward to it because they think it’s a big opportunity for Canada.”
The provinces of Canada are also requesting increased authority over immigration. Four immigration ministers representing Canadian provinces, Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Alberta—signed a letter asking for more oversight of immigration. Both Saskatchewan and Ontario are asking for more immigration control in addition to more recommendations to send invitations to applicants. If they are successful, candidates for Express Entry may have even more chances to obtain permanent residency through the PNP.
