Statistics Canada reveals a substantial population surge in Canada, with an estimated 40,528,396 citizens and residents as of October 1, 2023, showcasing the impactful influence of Canada’s ongoing immigration wave on demographic growth and diversity.
This increase represents 430,635 more people, or a noteworthy growth rate of 1.1%, from July 1st, 2023. With a 1.2% growth rate, this surge represents the largest quarterly population gain since Q2 1957. Canada’s post-war baby boom birth rate and the number of immigrants following the 1956 Hungarian Revolution contributed to the country’s mere 16.7 million inhabitants in 1957.
With 1,030,378 persons, the population growth in the first nine months of 2023 has set a new high. This encompasses the unparalleled expansion noted in 2022.
Canada’s population growth is primarily driven by international migration
The bulk (96%) of Canada’s population growth in Q3 2023 was attributed to foreign migration, with the remaining 4% coming from natural increase, which reflects the difference between births and deaths. For the foreseeable future, natural population growth is expected to play a limited part in population growth. This is because of various causes, including Canada’s aging population, lower fertility rates, and a significant immigrant inflow.
In the third quarter of 2023, there were 107,972 new immigrants arriving in Canada. Immigration made up 79.8% (371,299) of IRCC annual target of 465,000 immigrants from January to September 2023. This emphasizes how important immigration is to maintaining and shaping Canada’s demographic structure.
Non-permanent residents have increased significantly in Canada, where there was a record-breaking net growth of 312,758 people in the third quarter. Since data tracking on non-permanent residents began in 1971, this is the largest quarterly increase. With the exception of a small amount from an increase in refugees filing claims, the notable increase is mostly ascribed to an increase in the number of people with employment and study permits.
Population expansion is also evident in various provinces
Every Canadian province and territory saw an increase in population, with the Northwest Territories being the only exception. Notably, in the third quarter of 2023, population growth rates in Alberta, Prince Edward Island, and Ontario were 1.3%, 1.2%, and 1.2%, respectively, higher than the national average.
When interprovincial migration trends are examined, Alberta is the only province that consistently shows net gains. In the third quarter of 2023, there was a noteworthy 17,094 population gain in the province. This achievement marks the fifth quarter in a row with net gains above 10,000, a trend not seen since 1971.
Most of Alberta’s population growth has been attributed to interprovincial trade, especially with British Columbia and Ontario. On the other hand, British Columbia experienced decreases in interprovincial migration for the first five quarters running since 2013.
While interprovincial migration has been declining since the first quarter of 2020, Ontario’s net loss in the third quarter of 2023 was relatively lower at -5,952 individuals. The Atlantic provinces saw little or negative net interprovincial migration, in contrast to the growth seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. The main cause of this dip is a decrease in the number of migrants heading from Ontario to the Atlantic provinces.
An overview of Immigration Levels Plan 2024-2026
Canada released its Immigration Levels Plan for 2024–2026 on November 1st. Over the following three years, the number of new permanent residents admitted to Canada under the three main immigration categories—economic, family, and humanitarian—will be determined using this strategy as a guide.
Canada plans to accept 485,000 additional immigrants in 2024, and then another 500,000 in 2025 and 2026.
In terms of economic class, Canada expects to receive about 281,135 immigrants in 2024, or 58% of the annual goal. By 2026, this ratio is predicted to reach 60%, with 301,250 immigrants under the economic class being admitted that year.
More specifically, there are intentions to raise the goals for the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) and Express Entry. Express Entry admissions for permanent residents are expected to reach 110,700 in 2024. Subsequently, they are projected to rise to 117,500 in both 2025 and 2026. The PNP objective for immigrants is set at 110,000 in 2024. It is anticipated to expand to 120,000 in 2025 and further increase to 120,000 in 2026.
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