Due to COVID travel restrictions in March 20202, Canada prohibited many immigrants from entering the country.
There were some exceptions, such as those candidates who were seeking approval of permanent residence and study permits before the restrictions took effect, as well as those who were approved under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program. These restrictions were lifted by Canada, with all major restrictions on permanent and temporary residents by June 2021. Despite sanctions, Canada still saw high newcomer levels in 2021. Signs indicate this will continue into 2022, with the next few months set to be particularly strong. Since the start of the pandemic, this summer will be the first time when there are no restrictions that would prevent immigrants from entering Canada.
Approx. 130,000 immigrants will get PR in Q3 2022
Guided by its Immigration Level Plan 2022-2024, the Government of Canada is currently pursuing a goal of landing approximately 432,000 new permanent residents this year. Last year, Canada achieved their goal by giving priority to landing those applicants who already live in the country.
However, recent Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data show that now the department is processing more foreign applications. For example, this year it is prioritizing applications for the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), which are submitted primarily by candidates living abroad. This is a function of travel restrictions that no longer limit new permanent residents’ ability to visit Canada (a barrier that existed between March 2020 and June 2021).
In the first quarter of 2022, there were approximately 114,000 new permanent residents in Canada. A landing is either a person residing in Canada converting their temporary status to permanent residence or a person moving outside Canada with permanent residency status to Canada.
The Q1 2022 figure represents an increase of more than 60 percent compared to the 74,000 permanent residents who landed in Q1 2021.
By the third quarter of last year, Canada’s permanent resident landings increased to 123,000 people between July and September. This can be explained by three factors. First, IRCC was able to increase its processing capacity and has been able to maintain that capacity ever since. Second, the removal of travel restrictions on all Confirmed Permanent Residence (COPR) holders at the end of June 2021 enabled many people who would otherwise be ineligible to land in Canada to eventually be able to do so in Q3 2021 and onwards. Were. Third, Canadian immigration has a seasonal component. New immigrants prefer to come to Canada during the warm spring and summer months as opposed to coming to Canada in cold weather. As such, before the pandemic, Canada experienced a 40 percent increase in permanent residence landings in Q2 and Q3 each year, before seeing a decline in landings during Q4 and Q1.
All three of these factors are set to affect the new permanent habitat this summer. As a conservative estimate, we can expect another 100,000 landings in Q3 2022. A more likely estimate is the same as last year, we should see over 120,000 landings during this period. It is unlikely that we will see an increase of 40 percent or more due to seasonality, as the IRCC processes applications according to its immigration level plan. That is, processing many more applications that will result in a 40 percent or more increase in landings this summer, resulting in Canada far exceeding its immigration level target for this year.
Nevertheless, we should still look at some seasonality aspects. Assuming we see a 20 percent increase in landings due to warmer weather, we’ll have at least 130,000 new permanent habitats between this July and September.
A big question mark is how much of these landings will come from overseas. These figures are not published on the Canadian Government Data website. In any event, we should expect a higher share of people coming from overseas this summer, as there are fewer COVID-related obstacles.
International students: could reach 270,000 this summer if Q1 2022 growth continues
Between July and September 2021, Canada welcomed 207,000 international students. This is a staggering figure and all the more impressive given Canada’s pandemic-related travel restrictions at the time, such as the ban on direct flights from India last summer. India is by far the main source country of Canada’s foreign students, comprising 35 percent of them. Canada experiences the highest level of international student arrivals during the third quarter of each year as most foreign students begin their studies at the beginning of the Canadian academic calendar in late August and early September.
In the first quarter of 2022, Canada welcomed approximately 90,000 international students. This represents an increase of 30 percent compared to Q1 2021, and an increase of over 50 percent compared to Q1 2019 (Q1 2020 data is not good for comparison as Canada’s international student numbers have been negative since the start of the pandemic).
Assuming that the 30 percent growth achieved by Canada during the first quarter of 2022 continues in subsequent quarters, we can see that 270,000 international students arrived in Canada between July and September this year.
Temporary foreign workers: More than 100,000 work permits are likely to be invited in Q3
There are two categories of temporary foreign workers in Canada. Welcoming workers to address the shortage of labor is known as the TFWP- (Temporary Foreign Worker Program). The TFWP includes a minority of Canadian work permit holders. The majority are welcomed under the International Mobility Program (IMP), which sees work permits issued for economic, social is cultural purposes.
In Q1 2022, Canada welcomed about 28,000 people under the TFWP. This is less than the 33,000 welcomed in Q1 2021, but still 20 percent higher than the first quarter of 2019. TFWP levels rise in Q2 as agricultural workers approach the start of Canada’s harvest season. Levels in Q3 are similar to those in Q1, meaning we can expect another 28,000 or so work permit holders to come under TFWP between July and September.
Unlike the TFWP, in which most new work permit holders come from overseas, the IMP sees that a mix of its work permit holders come from overseas and obtain their work permits after having already lived in Canada for some time. The main source of work permit holders under IMP are international students who completed their program in Canada and then went on to obtain a post-graduation work permit. The Government of Canada offers PGWP to international graduates as an opportunity to gain work experience, which increases their chances of applying for permanent residency.
Canada issued about 73,000 work permits under the IMP in the first quarter of this year. This is also lower than the 91,000 issued in the first quarter of 2021. Nevertheless, IMP numbers are strongest in the third quarter, for example, many international graduates are getting PGWP after the completion of their programs (usually in the second quarter). As such, we should see somewhere between 80,000 and 100,000 work permits issued under IMPs in the summer (assuming there is a slowdown in demand even among IMPs which will see stronger-than-usual work permit figures this summer).
When combining the TFWP and IMP estimates, we could see between 110,000 and 120,000 new work permits issued between July and September.
Total: More than 500,000 people are expected to land this summer
All told, we could see 520,000 or more people gaining permanent residency, as well as their study and work permits taking effect during this summer. This would be a significant figure in a span of only three months and would represent a remarkable turnaround in Canadian immigration after two difficult years.
By comparison, about 445,000 people received permanent residency or saw their study or work permits take effect in the third quarter of 2021.
It is important to note that it is difficult to present Canadian newcomer figures for several reasons. There is double-counting and even triple-counting, as it is routine for newcomers to change their visa status. For example, an international student may start out with a study permit, switch to a PGWP, and then obtain permanent residency. If all this happens in the same year, they will be counted three different times in the IRCC figures. More generally, a person can change visa status twice in a given year (for example, from study permit to PGWP, or from work permit to permanent residence). IRCC has proven its ability to process a large volume of applications over the past year, but it also regularly faces hurdles that can slow it down, with variables such as the number of new international students from Canada’s Willingness to come or decide to study elsewhere, as well as the willingness and ability of Canadian employers to hire foreign workers.
Despite these variables, the above newcomer categories have a high probability of more than 500,000 people in the summer, such as the massive lifting of pandemic travel restrictions, as well as the IRCC processing record-high levels of applications in its pandemic-induced backlog. to get through.
