The federal skilled worker program was reinstated for the first time since 2020 in July. It allows talented foreign immigrants to apply.
CEC, FSTP, and FSWP are three programs managed by Express Entry.
The Comprehensive Ranking Score (CRS) determines whether candidates get an ITA. On average, the CRS cut-off for ITAs is reached every two weeks for applicants in IRCC’s Express Entry pool. It has been open to all Express Entry draws this year. And it selects applicants based on their FSWP and CEC scores.
CRS cut-offs in 2022: An overview
A total of 1,500 candidates with a minimum CRS score of 557 as of July 6th were invited to join the Express Entry pool.
While IRCC continued to hold draws throughout the year, its draw sizes increased (the most recent draw had 4,750 candidates). While the CRS cutoffs were lowered to below 500.
As COVID continues to spread across Canada, the need for workers remains acute. It is likely that Express Entry will return in 2022 and the CRS score will begin to decline slowly. It’s due to Canada’s decision to use immigration to fulfill its pressing economic needs.
Is it possible to predict CRS results from prior results?
Predicting future CRS scores based on past cut-offs may initially appear to be a very simple undertaking. The CRS cut-offs continue to decrease as draws grow and time passes. Realistically, the situation is more complicated.
The lack of a distinct pattern in how CRS cut-offs change makes it difficult to anticipate future CRS ratings. The graph that follows corresponds to each draw’s CRS cut-offs. Although a negative correlation can be seen, we are unable to predict future CRS scores because cut-offs do not consistently decrease from draw to draw.
The observation also reveals that the CRS cut-offs did not decline consistently with each draw. Additionally, CRS scores received under Express Entry had a standard deviation of 21.6 points (based on Statistics analysis). As an estimate, this may also be a huge error for Express Entry pool candidates.
Moreover, the specific policy arrangements that affect the CRS scores make this technique unsuitable for predicting future scores.
CRS score cut-offs – Its impacts
In the first place, and possibly most importantly, the IRCC is the only agency responsible for determining what CRS cut-off levels should be used. In other words, the department has the discretion to determine CRS cut-offs and invite immigrants in line with Canada’s economic needs without being bound by trends or patterns.
According to some, the most dramatic instance of this occurred in February 2021 when only 75 people were accepted for Express Entry based on the lowest cut-off in Express Entry’s history.
Another thing to take into account is a rise in score cut-offs following the processing of some kinds of applications. By receiving an enhanced provincial nomination, Express Entry candidates can gain up to 600 CRS points simply by receiving an enhanced provincial nomination through the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP).
As in the CEC, CRS scores can be significantly boosted by candidates with both Canadian professional and educational backgrounds, and skewed Express Entry cut-offs.
CRS score – It’s future
Bill C-19 will significantly affect how the CRS affects immigration in 2023, despite uncertainty about the CRS cut-offs for the future.
As a result of this law, which was passed in June 2022, the immigration minister will have the power to divide Express Entry candidates into groups. This division is based on policy goals and award them visas based on those goals.
To directly meet economic needs, the IRCC has already stated its intention to take this approach in 2023. Its focuses on specific in-demand professions.
Express Entry-managed programs are expected to admit 203,220 new immigrants between 2023 and 2025, according to the Immigration Levels Plan.
