Canada’s population falls as temporary resident numbers decline, according to new early estimates released by Statistics Canada.
Between July 1 and October 1, 2025, Canada’s population dropped by 76,068 people, which is a 0.2% decrease.
This is the first population decline reported in 2025 under Statistics Canada’s quarterly population estimates.
Statistics Canada said the drop was mainly caused by fewer non-permanent residents in the country. The agency linked this change to recent government policy decisions on immigration.
What Do The New Population Numbers Show?
Most provinces and territories saw their population decrease or stay almost the same during the third quarter of 2025.
According to Statistics Canada, the largest population drops were seen in:
- Ontario (-0.4%)
- British Columbia (-0.3%)
These were followed by:
- Manitoba (-0.2%)
- Northwest Territories (-0.2%)
Only Alberta and Nunavut recorded population growth, with both provinces seeing an increase of 0.2%.
This decline is very different from recent years. In Q3 2023, Canada had its highest quarterly population growth since 1957, at 1%. In Q3 2024, the population still grew by 0.6%.
Sharp Drop In Non-Permanent Residents
Statistics Canada estimates that the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) fell by 176,479 people in the third quarter of 2025. This was the main reason for Canada’s overall population decline.
This decrease was:
- Larger than the declines seen in Q1 2025 (-55,194) and Q2 2025 (-58,719); and
- The largest drop ever recorded since comparable data began in Q3 1971.
The number of non-permanent residents fell from 3,024,216 (7.3% of the population) on July 1, 2025, to an estimated 2,847,737 (6.8%) on October 1.
Statistics Canada explained that the decline happened because record-high outflows of non-permanent residents (339,505), such as expired permits, were much higher than new inflows (163,026), which represent new permits issued.
Except for one area, every province and territory had fewer non-permanent residents on October 1 than on July 1.
Which Non-Permanent Resident Groups Declined The Most?
Statistics Canada said the overall drop in non-permanent residents in Q3 2025 was mainly due to decreases among:
- Study permit holders only (-73,682)
- Work and study permit holders (-67,616)
- Work permit holders only (-35,231)
The largest decline in study permit holders only was seen in:
- Ontario (-47,511)
- British Columbia (-14,291)
These provinces also have the highest number of international students in Canada.
At the same time, the number of asylum claimants, protected persons, and related groups increased by 7,324. This group has now grown for 15 quarters in a row, reaching a record of 504,767 people, even though the increase was smaller than in past years.
Permanent Immigration Remains Steady
While changes in temporary residents caused the overall population drop, permanent immigration continued at a steady pace.
Canada welcomed 102,867 new permanent residents in Q3 2025. Statistics Canada said this level is similar to recent quarters and is in line with meeting IRCC’s Immigration Levels Plan for 2025–2027.
Why Non-Permanent Resident Numbers Are Falling?
The decline in non-permanent residents is linked to several federal policy changes introduced over the past two years:
- Moratorium On Low-Wage LMIAs: Low-wage LMIAs submitted after September 26, 2024 are no longer processed in regions with unemployment rates of 6% or higher. Without an LMIA, employers cannot hire new workers or renew work permits under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program.
- Restricted Spousal Open Work Permits: Spousal open work permits are now limited to spouses of select international students and skilled foreign workers. Eligibility depends on program type, job skill level (TEER), and permit length.
- Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) Changes: New language and field-of-study rules now apply to applications submitted after November 1, 2024.
- Cap On Study Permits: Study permit applications were capped at 550,162 for 2025, with only 437,000 permits to be issued. This is a 10% cut compared to 2024.
The federal government says these steps support its goal of reducing temporary residents to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2027.
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