A key study from Statistics Canada was just released, and it represents a change in the way that non-permanent residents (NPRs) are counted in Canada. The most recent population estimate is that there are currently 2.2 million people in Canada as non-permanent residents. When compared to the statistics from the 2021 Census, this figure shows a significant difference of more than one million people. This update emphasizes how crucial it is to comprehend how dynamic and changing Canada’s non-permanent resident population is. It also emphasizes the importance of using reliable information that is current during the planning and policymaking processes.
Statistics Canada admits in this report that it previously underestimated the number of non-permanent residents in Canada. In addition to housing and economic policies, immigration policies, and other crucial areas, the new technique has significant implications for Canadian public policy.
The current population of Canada has reached approximately 40.1 million people
According to recent data, the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) in Canada has increased by an astounding 46% since last year. The primary reason for this growth is a substantial increase in work and study permits, marking the most significant NPRs growth since record-keeping began in 1971–1972.
Canada’s population is projected to reach 40,097,761 as of July 1, 2023. This surpasses the key milestone of 40,000,000 reached in June 2023, reflecting a remarkable growth of 1,158,705 persons (+2.9%) from the prior year. Notably, Canada continues to lead the G7 in terms of population growth and is among the top 20 nations in the world for population growth.
The most recent statistics show an astounding +3.3% population growth rate, which is the greatest percentage for a 12-month period since 1957. Canada’s population could potentially double in just 25 years, according to forecasts from Statistics Canada, illustrating the country’s dynamic demographic environment and its consequences for future planning and policies.
According to the analysis, net international migration accounts for about 98% of Canada’s population growth between July 1, 2022, and July 1, 2023; the remaining 2% comes from the difference between births and deaths.
There are two key reasons for this significant increase in international migration. First off, the nation welcomed roughly 470,000 new permanent residents. The number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) also significantly increased, with an influx of around 700,000 people.
Furthermore, with an average of 1.33 children per woman in 2022—down from 1.44 in 2021—fertility rates in Canada reached historic lows. According to a new Statistics Canada analysis, Canadian women had 20,000 fewer children between 2018 and 2022, pointing to a wider trend of dropping birthrates.
Statistics Canada’s updated method for tallying non-permanent residents
To achieve the highest level of accuracy, Statistics Canada regularly improves its demographic projections. The most recent changes include tracking people who stay in Canada after their temporary permits expire while waiting for IRCC to consider their applications for extension, as well as including family members who live with temporary permit holders in Canada.
Recent discoveries from CIBC Economics and the C.D. Howe Institute served as the impetus for these modifications by Statistics Canada. These studies found that Statistics Canada’s annual census and quarterly population growth estimates significantly undercounted non-permanent residents (NPRs), such as students, temporary foreign workers, and other temporary residents.
CIBC’s calculations suggest that Canada’s demographic statistics may not yet include up to a million non-permanent residents (NPRs). Additionally, the 2021 census data showed that there were approximately 925,000 NPRs in Canada, although the quarterly estimate claimed that there were 1.17 million NPRs. This undercounting could very well indicate that the actual number of NPRs in Canada is considerably higher than what has been previously reported.
2.2 million people in Canada as non-permanent residents – Growth was highest in Alberta
With a noteworthy population gain of 4%, Alberta stands out as the region that is expanding the fastest among Canada’s 13 provinces and territories. International migration and the influx of persons who have chosen to settle in the province from other parts of Canada are mostly responsible for this expansion. With a net increase of more than 56,000 residents between July 2022 and July 2023, Alberta led the country.
Statistics Canada notes that seven provinces, including Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan, have also experienced record-breaking population increase.
Prince Edward Island achieved an impressive growth rate of 3.9%, with Nova Scotia and New Brunswick closely following at 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively. On the other hand, with a growth rate of just 1.3%, Newfoundland and Labrador had the lowest growth rate of any province.
Ontario and British Columbia both recorded a 3% growth rate, while Manitoba saw a growth rate of 2.9%, and Saskatchewan experienced a growth rate of 2.6%. With a growth rate of 2.3%, Quebec’s population likewise saw a notable increase. These changes in the population’s composition indicate how Canada’s various regions experience population growth at various rates.
Canada’s immigration level plan 2024-2026
By November 1, Canadian law mandates that the federal government must publicly unveil its immigration plan in non-election years. As a result, we can anticipate learning about Canada’s upcoming goals for permanent residence by early November. Canada wants to accept 500,000 new permanent residents year by the year 2025, in accordance with the current Immigration Levels Plan 2023–2025. Marc Miller, the federal minister of immigration, recently stated his hope that the goals set forth in the Immigration Levels Plan 2024–2026 will either match the present strategy or maybe be increased.
